IYR - Overbought

Catching tops is never a good idea, and I don't recommend it.  Certainly it isn't one of my styles.  However, sometimes you wait for the trade to come to you, and some tops are so obvious that they're just begging to be shorted, like BIDU and CAGC posted last week.  This week, it's the REIT index, or IYR.  How overbought is this?  Let me put it into perspective.

In the last 10 years, there was only one instance - just one, that shared the same run.  Hint 1 :  It happened in 2007.  Hint 2: It happened at the all time high.  Hint 3:  It happened a month before Bear Stearns became a penny stock.

The reward to risk ratio by shorting the IYR through puts on DRN is extremely high at the moment.  The IYR is currently at the key resistance of $50, at RSI levels that occur once every few years, at the heart of bull markets.