Noble Corp - NE (5/14/2010)

Downtrend confirmed, breaking major support at 37.50.  Go long at $32.50, with a stop at $32.00

5/14/2010 - Market Update

The market is in trouble.  First off, the Euro is in a free fall, and transferring money from the left to right pocket isn't going to fix anything.  Think of the current debt problem as the soap scum on the shower door -- accumulated over several years, and will take more than a few scrubs to clear the glass. 

The downtrend in the S&P 500 is confirmed, and it's now time to be bearish. 

5/13/2010 - Market in Danger

The past 2 trading days were great days for long exits and short entries.  All the major indices are backtesting the 20EMA and failed today.  If tomorrow finishes below today's close then the markets are in serious trouble.  The crash last Thursday served as a warning and it definitely should not be overlooked.

5/6/2010 - The day the market broke.

They're trying to rewrite history today. This was a crash. A result of the simplest and purest of market physics. A "fat finger" doesn't explain 18 full minutes of selling at the bid in the Qs and DIAs which preceded the final plunge. There were technical factors as well: the 200 day Moving Average was breached right at the time that the plunge started, triggering natural selling. That was also the moment that the demonstrations in Greece became violent. And the DXY breached 85.

We're coming off a topping process. Markets drop faster than they rise. There was evidence of a gathering liquidity crisis. Long trades and carry trades were unwinding with increasing momentum. Oil inventory and new jobless claims reports this morning came in below expectations.

In other words we had a perfect storm, a setup for a crash. Sellers simply overwhelmed bidders. And in this low volume, exhausted market at a top there simply were unanswered offers as large positions were liquidated.
What is scary is how arbitrarily and capriciously the NYSE and NASDAQ could simply nullify legitimate trades. Why didn't the safety mechanisms kick in? Where were the trading curbs, the 15 minutes of suspended trading? Would they be canceling trades if the "fat finger" made the market rise? I think we know. The playing field is full of trap doors, booby traps, land mines and leg holds. Even being right doesn't help since you can be frozen out of trades, or they can be canceled.

We are witnessing a crisis: a crisis of confidence in our markets, in capitalism as it is being practiced today and in the legal and tax system. The events in Thailand and Greece fit right in with the notion that class warfare is not only brewing, but is being fought already in the virtual trenches. But the pervasive anger and disillusionment that cuts across traditional demographics is spilling over to communities and the streets.