1/21/2010 - Crucial Moment

SPX index fell through 20 EMA and touched the 50 on a high volume breakdown.  Even though a 2 day retrace does not mean that the top is in, the high volume today shouldn't be ignored.  Commodities is the case in point, sold off hard on strong volume, which is typical of the beginning of a major trend change. 

Pay close attention to how the markets react tomorrow, and all of next week.  The indices must be able to rise above and hold the 20 EMA.  If the 20 EMA is proving to be resistance, then I'm willing to let go half of my long positions.  Given that the indices are above more support than Obama a year ago, in addition to uptrend moving averages, I don't see a sudden crash in the magnitude of 2008.  Downtrend is possible, but I don't see it taking place for more than a couple months.  If the trend does change, watch out for the 200 EMA.