10/29/2009 - Market Update

Very strong rally today across all sectors, and it looks like a higher swing low from the dip on 10/2.  However, the market is not out of the woods yet - the $SPX must break the 20 EMA at around 1069 tomorrow and close above it in order to prove to me that the uptrend will continue.  If it does not by the end of the day, I am willing to dump 1/3 of the long positions that I've been holding since the uptrend started or hedge myself with some inverse ETFs.  The reason being that the Russell index is still below the 50 EMA.

10/28/2009 - Market Update - Danger

The market has shown its ugly face over the past week, and even though this is a great buying opportunity, there are some developments today that suggests the uptrend may be coming to an end.

1.  Major indices have broken the 50 EMA.  Russell 2000 was hit the hardest.

 2.  VIX has exploded to the upside and held above the 50 EMA on a long white candlestick.

One should stay long until the downtrend is confirmed.  The moving averages are turning fast, so the market must rebound within the next couple of days in order for the uptrend to stay in tact.

RDN Radian Group (RDN)

This analysis for RDN is done for a fellow blogger who shorted at 6.23. 

I think shorting this is still a bit too premature, as you'd be guessing right now, since the 20/50 didn't technically cross yet.  Also, the timing could have been a little bit better.  Remember the rule on the side bar:

Sell into strength in downtrends, buy into weakness in uptrends.

You instead shorted into weakness in a downtrend, which isn't so bad, but you're putting yourself at a disadvantage with little breathing room.  There's a couple things you could do and they're both up to you.

1.  Cover asap and take your loss.
2.  Wait for the 20/50 cross, and add to your short position once the price hits the 50 EMA.  If the price breaks through the 50 EMA, cover everything.  If the 50 holds, then you're good to go. 

China Green Agriculture (CGA) - BUY

Relatively new stock with little resistance showing strong uptrend on huge breakout volume.  Expect this to go higher.  Great buy.

Barrick Gold (ABX) - Possible Major Breakout

10/13/2009 - Market Update

The market continued to defy the masses and the media as it continued to rally.  When grandmas and grandpas are all crying for the market to tank, then you can be rest assured that the market will continue higher.  This is exactly how retail investors are left our of rallies and end up buying at the very top.  Do you ever look at charts and wonder - gosh, only if I had bought at that price!  Guess what, you are living through the phase when stocks are now around that price.  Intel just reported their earnings with higher profits AND revenue.  Futures up 75 points.

The chart below shows that the SPX is currently at resistance.  If tomorrow closes higher and breaks through, the market will continue its run.  Once again, stay long and do not short into this market.

Alcoa (AA) - Update

I overlooked the multi year resistance at ~15.00.  It may take a few tries to break this.  Entry modified to 20 EMA.